Bond Insurer Split May Trigger Lawsuits, Analysts Say

(Bloomberg) -- Regulators' plans to break up bond insurers into ``good'' businesses covering municipal debt and ``bad'' businesses liable to subprime-related losses may trigger ``years of litigation,'' Bank of America Corp. analysts said.

New York Insurance Department Superintendent Eric Dinallo and New York Governor Eliot Spitzer said last week that insurers may need to be divided if they can't raise enough capital to compensate for losses on subprime-mortgage guarantees. FGIC Corp., the fourth-largest of the so-called monoline insurers, asked to be split on Feb. 15 after Moody's Investors Service cut the Stamford, Connecticut-based company's top Aaa ranking.

``Despite the regulatory interest in separating the exposures, the essential fact remains that all policy holders, whether municipal or structured finance, entered into contracts backed by the entire entity,'' analysts led by Jeffrey Rosenberg in New York wrote in a note to investors dated Feb. 15. A breakup is ``likely to lead to significant legal challenges holding up the resolution of the monoline issues for years.''

FGIC, owned by Blackstone Group LP and PMI Group Inc., insures about $314 billion of debt, including $220 billion in municipal bonds. The company said last week it applied for a license from New York state insurance regulators to create a standalone municipal company and separate the unit that guarantees subprime-mortgage bonds and related securities that led to rating downgrades.

New York-based Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second- largest bond insurer, may also seek a split, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing a person familiar with the situation.

 

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New York Fed Manufacturing Index Dropped to -11.7 in February

(Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in New York unexpectedly contracted this month for the first time in almost three years as new orders and shipments declined.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index fell to minus 11.7, the first negative reading since May 2005, from 9.0 in January, the bank said today. Readings below zero signal contraction. The New York Fed's index averaged 17.2 in 2007.

The worst housing slump in a quarter century and cutbacks at U.S. automakers are weakening manufacturing and helping to push the broader economy toward a recession. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday told lawmakers that the central bank will act in a ``timely'' manner to help growth, after already cutting the benchmark interest rate 2.25 percentage points since September.

``Prospects for manufacturing are shaky,'' Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, said before the report.``We are relying on strong exports but I'm not convinced that will hold up indefinitely. We expect to see capital spending softening.''

Economists forecast the New York manufacturing index would fall to 6.5 in February, according to the median of 49 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from minus 1.2 to 11.6.

The New York Fed's measure of new orders fell to minus 11.9 from 0.0 the prior month, and a measure of shipments dropped to minus 4.9 from 15.8 in January.

Inventory Gauge

A gauge of unfilled orders decreased to minus 1.1 from 1.2, while the index of inventories was unchanged in February after a minus 4.9 reading the month before.

The employment index fell to minus 2.1 from a positive 2.4 a month earlier, the New York Fed said. An index of prices paid rose to 47.4 from 40.2, while a gauge of prices received fell to 17.9 from 18.3.

The report provides one of the month's earliest clues to the state of manufacturing nationwide. Similar data for the Philadelphia region will be released Feb. 21. New York's economy is less vulnerable to the auto slump and more exposed to financial services and trade, economists said.

The index measuring the manufacturing outlook for six months from now rose to 22.7 from 19.4, today's report showed.

 

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U.S. December Trade Gap Narrows More Than Forecast

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in December as exports reached record levels and Americans spent less on imported autos and goods from China.

The gap between imports and exports shrank 6.9 percent, the biggest decrease in more than a year, to $58.8 billion from $63.1 billion in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The deficit for all of 2007 decreased for the first time in six years.

A weaker dollar and expansion of emerging economies are feeding overseas sales for U.S.-made goods and may forestall a deeper slump at U.S. manufacturers. The narrowing deficit is one of the few remaining bright spots for the economy and will probably lead the government to increase its estimate of fourth- quarter gross domestic product later this month.

``The trade balance is going to continue to be a support for the economy,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. ``The drop in imports is probably consistent with the view the domestic economy is turning quite soft.''

Economists had forecast the gap would narrow to $61.5 billion, according to the median of 76 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the deficit ranged from $57 billion to $66.5 billion.

The dollar, which had fallen against the euro earlier today, stayed lower after the report. It traded at $1.4609 per euro at 8:37 a.m. in New York, from $1.4573 late yesterday. The U.S. currency was little changed versus the yen, at 108.30 yen per dollar.

2007 Deficit Shrinks

For all of last year, the deficit shrank 6.2 percent to $711.6 billion, the biggest decrease since 1991. Last year was the first time the trade gap narrowed since 2001.

Exports rose 1.5 percent to $144.3 billion in December, setting a record for a 10th straight month and reflecting more demand for U.S. made capital equipment and industrial supplies. For the year, exports rose 12 percent to a record $1.622 trillion.

Imports in December declined 1.1 percent to $203.1 billion, reflecting lower demand for foreign-made autos, consumer goods, food and capital equipment.

Also contributing to the drop in imports was a 14 percent decline in purchases from China, which helped shrink the month's trade gap with the Asian nation 22 percent to $18.8 billion. Petroleum imports rose 4.2 percent to a record $36 billion as the average price rose to $82.76 a barrel, also the highest monthly average ever. Prices increased in late December and early January and may push up the value of imports for the January report. They have since declined.

Fourth-Quarter Growth

Today's report may cause the Commerce Department to revise its estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth higher. The government projected last month that the trade gap narrowed to a $521 billion annual pace in the last three months of 2007. For all of last year, trade contributed 0.55 percentage point to growth, the most since 1991.

The government will release a revised estimate of the expansion for the last three months of 2007 on Feb. 28.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Committee later today on the state of the U.S. expansion. Central bank policy makers have forecast the economy will avoid a recession.

``The Fed's policy actions should help to promote a pickup in growth over time,'' Fed Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said in a speech on Feb. 12. ``I consider it most probable that the U.S. economy will experience slow growth, and not outright recession, in coming quarters.''

Fed's Rate Cuts

The Fed's Open Market Committee is scheduled to next vote on interest-rate policy on March 18. Policy makers lowered the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in an emergency decision announced Jan. 22 and followed that with a half-point cut at the scheduled Jan. 29-30 meeting.

After eliminating the influence of prices, the trade deficit decreased to $49.3 billion from $53.6 billion. This is the figure the government uses in calculating GDP.

For the year, the trade deficit with China, the second- largest U.S. trading partner after Canada, increased 10 percent to a record $256.3 billion.

The gap with China is a political sticking point for the U.S. and other countries.

Group of Seven policy makers, meeting in Tokyo last weekend, said China should do more to defuse global trade tensions by allowing the yuan to climb against the dollar and other currencies. The G-7 also forecast the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth.

 

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MBIA Says It Can Weather Slump, Doesn't Need Bailout

(Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., the world's biggest bond insurer, said it is equipped to survive the slump in prices of mortgage securities and dismissed suggestions that the industry needs a rescue or stronger federal oversight.

``A bailout of highly credit-worthy companies who, at most, are at risk of losing the very highest ratings available, is misplaced,'' MBIA Chief Financial Officer Charles Chaplin said in prepared remarks to be delivered today at a hearing of the House Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets in Washington.

Chaplin and Ambac Financial Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Callen will make their presentations on Capitol Hill as they try to fend off credit rating downgrades and critics who say the companies may be headed for bankruptcy. One of the most vocal skeptics, hedge fund manager William Ackman, will also deliver remarks today alongside the MBIA and Ambac executives.

MBIA, based in Armonk, New York, and Ambac are among five companies struggling to maintain their top bond insurance credit ratings after a slump in the value of mortgage-linked securities the companies guaranteed. Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are reviewing MBIA's top rating for a possible downgrade. Fitch already cut its AAA ratings on New York-based Ambac's insurance unit to AA. Ambac is also being scrutinized by Moody's and S&P.

``MBIA is more than adequately capitalized to meet obligations to policyholders,'' Chaplin, 51, said in his testimony.

Rescue Plans

Ambac said in a statement last night that Callen will tell the committee the company's main challenge is to achieve ``ratings stability.''

MBIA rose 61 cents to $12.25 at 9:38 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Ambac climbed 19 cents to $9.56.

MBIA and Ambac tumbled more than 80 percent in the past year in New York trading as they posted record losses of more than $5 billion and concern grew the companies may not get enough capital to sustain their ratings, casting doubt on $2.4 trillion of municipal and structured finance debt.

New York Insurance Department Superintendent Eric Dinallo last month organized banks to begin plans for a rescue of the insurers and said he may consider strengthening his oversight. Dinallo will also appear before the committee today, as will New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission director Erik Sirri and Keith M. Buckley, a group managing director at Fitch.

Buffett's Offer

Dinallo will tell lawmakers he will consider splitting the bond insurers into two businesses, according to prepared testimony. ``One would have the municipal bond policies and any other healthy parts of the business,'' Dinallo said. ``The other would have the structured finance and problem parts of the business.''

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett yesterday offered to take over $800 billion of the municipal debt guaranteed by MBIA, Ambac and FGIC Corp., the fourth-largest bond insurer. Ambac yesterday said it rejected the offer. Two other insurers haven't responded, Buffett told CNBC television this week.

Spitzer told CNBC today that while Buffett's proposal would benefit municipalities, it wouldn't help the ``bad bank'' piece of the bond insurers' business. ``We don't want to create that schism yet if it can be avoided,'' Spitzer said.

 

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NY AG probes health insurers over reimbursement

(Reuters) - New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said on Wednesday he is conducting an industry- wide probe of health insurers into an alleged scheme to defraud consumers by manipulating reimbursement rates.

At the center of the scheme is Ingenix, the nation's provider of health care billing information, which serves as a conduit for rate data to the largest insurers in the country, Cuomo said in a statement.

Cuomo intends to sue Ingenix, its parent, UnitedHealth Group Inc, and three additional subsidiaries.

 

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Paulson sees slower economy, to rush tax rebates

(Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday stood by his view that the economy will avoid recession this year and grow at a slower pace, and that the Treasury will act quickly to distribute tax rebate payments.

"The U.S. economy is diverse and resilient, and our long-term fundamentals are healthy. I believe our economy will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than we have seen in recent years," Paulson said in prepared testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee.

President George W. Bush on Wednesday is expected to sign into law a $152 billion fiscal stimulus package that will provide tax rebates to some 130 million Americans, with most about $600 for an individual and $1,200 for a couple.

Paulson said the Internal Revenue Service would simultaneously manage the spring tax filing season and preparations for issuing the rebate payments starting in early May.

"Payments will be largely completed this summer, putting cash in the hands of millions of Americans at a time when our economy is experiencing slower growth," he said. "Together, the payments to individuals and the incentives for businesses will help create more than half a million jobs by the end of this year."

Paulson also called on Congress to aid the housing sector by passing legislation that will modernize the Federal Housing Administration and create a new, stronger regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored housing finance enterprises.

Under the stimulus plan, Fannie and Freddie will be temporarily allowed to invest in larger mortgages, providing more resources for refinancing troubled mortgages in costly coastal housing markets.

 

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Cuomo to Sue UnitedHealth, Probe Reimbursement Policy

(Bloomberg) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said he plans to sue UnitedHealth Group Inc. and will issue 16 subpoenas in an industrywide probe of how U.S. insurers compute ``reasonable and customary'' rates to limit payouts.

Cuomo said he plans to sue Minnetonka, Minnesota-based UnitedHealth, the largest U.S. health insurer, over deceptive practices in the reimbursement policy it links to such charges, which he claims seriously shortchange patients and involve a conflict of interest.

``When insurers like United create convoluted and dishonest systems for determining the rate of reimbursement, real people get stuck with excessive bills and are less likely to seek the care they need,'' Cuomo said in a statement today.

Cuomo said he will subpoena UnitedHealth, Aetna Inc., Cigna Corp. and Empire Blue Cross & Blue Shield over their reimbursement practices.

UnitedHealth's Ingenix unit provides data that sets ``reasonable and customary'' rates, which put a ceiling on reimbursement to patients, Cuomo said. When patients go out of network, health insurance companies generally cover only 80 percent of `reasonable and customary' charges.

Cuomo said a six-month investigation showed Ingenix has a ``defective and manipulated'' database that most health insurance companies use to set reimbursement rates for out-of-network expenses. The probe found that two subsidiaries of United ``dramatically under-reimbursed'' patients for out-of-network expenses using information from Ingenix.

United Falls

UnitedHealth fell $2.28, or 4.7 percent, to $45.99 at 12:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

``This is obviously going to be a negative for the company,'' said Sheryl Skolnick, an analyst with CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut, in a telephone interview. ``These things typically take a long time to work their way through. It does make it more difficult for United to argue that they have fixed their challenges.''

UnitedHealth Group Inc., WellPoint Inc., Aetna Inc. and other health insurers fell in New York trading this morning in anticipation of Cuomo's announcement.

Don Nathan, a spokesman for UnitedHealth, had no comment before the announcement.

Ingenix, with $1.3 billion in revenue last year, markets services to detect health-care fraud, identify preferred doctors and hospitals for insurers and help drugmakers run trials of new medicines. The company has said it has contracts with 1,500 health insurers, including rival Aetna Inc., as well as 200,000 doctors, 3,500 hospitals, 140 drug companies and government agencies.

 

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